Pernsteiner

Finanzmanagement aktuell

1. Aufl. 2008

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Finanzmanagement aktuell (1. Auflage)

S. 473A Model Proposal for an Early Warning System (EWS) to Predict new Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: Tested for Turkey

Ceyda Öztürk

S. 474Management Summary

As economies are being transformed to fit into a more integrated world due to globalization, an increasing number of companies is taking advantage of foreign trade. Multinational companies trade with foreign countries, invest in, borrow money from and sometimes give loans to such countries. Banks are playing a more important role while fulfilling their lending functions to multinational companies and to governments. Thus, financial markets have spread from the North American continent to Asia with its problems such as contagion risk and ambiguity. Players in the markets try to prevent those problems and try to assess how serious they are.

The debt crises in the 1970s and the increase in crude oil prices had huge negative effects on many economies, especially emerging ones, and forced those countries to borrow money. Although the structure of lending has changed a lot since the 1970s, the system has become more complicated. Moreover, although the volume of debt has increased drastically, the total debt of third-world countries had incr...

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